Follow netiquette. ‘insiders’, a lack of understanding of uncertainty, animal spirits, or what? Minsky’s model seed of a hypothetical crisis is a growth-inducing shock, called displacement, to a sector of the economy, perhaps the invention of the internet, a financial derivative, or some technological advancements that lead people and firms to expect economic growth in that particular sector, anticipate profit opportunities, adjust their financial prospects, and finally, demand more credit in hopes that the … In his book Manias, Panics, and Crashes, Kindleberger explores the anatomy of a typical financial crisis and provides a framework that considers the impact of the powerful human dynamics of fear and greed. Once an extreme event occurs, standard models offer limited insight as to how the ensuing crisis could play out and how it should be managed, which is why policy responses can seem disjointed. “Twenty-five years ago, when most economists were extolling the virtues of financial deregulation and innovation, a maverick named Hyman P. Minsky maintained a more negative view of Wall Street; in fact, he noted that bankers, traders, and other financiers periodically played the role of arsonists, setting the entire economy ablaze. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. Many people claim ([King 2002] or here) claim that Minsky was one, however Minsky himself does not want to be named Post Keynesian. The three types of speculative bubbles are most clearly laid out in Charles Kindleberger’s Manias, Panics, and Crashes (1978, 2000), with the first explanation of the most widespread third type based on work of Hyman Minsky (1972, 1982), whose discussion more generally underpinned Kindleberger’s discussion of the nature and pattern of how speculative bubbles develop and end. As a boom leads to euphoria, Minsky said, banks and other commercial lenders extend credit to ever more dubious borrowers, often creating new financial instruments to do the job. He notes that some crises have a minor economic impact but concentrates on crises of major size … The Minsky-Kindleberger crisis model starts with a displacementsuch as a change in monetary policy leading to a profit increase in one sector of the economy. A History of Post-Keynesian Economics since 1936, Edward Elgar, Chelten. The third type of bubble is that which exhibits a period of financial distress, a type first identified and labeled by Minsky (1972). In 1931 they spread through a number of different channels. Kindleberger had the great merit, to be shared with Minsky, of having resumed in the early 1970s, after an eclipses of more than two decades, the investigation on the intrinsic instability of credit and its impact on financial crises. Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time. More recently, Keen has developed a mathematical formulation of Minsky’s insight that there is a non-linearity INTRINSIC to capitalism … not an Austrian Boom-Bust cycle !!! What is involved is heterogeneous behavior by agents, with some insiders getting out at the peak while others hang on during the period of financial distress until the panic and crash. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982 (Minsky, 1982). You may use these HTML tags and attributes:
. In this type of bubble, many agents may be quite unhappy as the price declines, but there is no general panic. While the most common definition is of a price remaining above a fundamental value for some extended period, at least one difficulty is that some may argue that there is not even a fundamental at all, with some Post Keynesians and econophysicists making this point. Minsky laid out a general framework, and Kindleberger supplied numerous historical examples to fill out this general framework, with the subsequent editions of his book expanding this set of examples and providing yet more supporting details for the more general story. https://larspsyll.wordpress.com/2014/12/18/kindleberger-and-the-minsky-model Kindleberger’s second key lesson, closely related, is the power of contagion. Kindleberger documented the ability of what is now sometimes referred to as the Minsky-Kindleberger framework to explain the behaviour of markets in the late 1920s and early 1930s – behaviour about which economists otherwise might have arguably had little of relevance or value to say. p.6 Kindleberger's position is that markets work well most of the time, but occasionally can get a little heated and government intervention must step in p.14 "History is particular; economics is general." Lexington: Lexington Books, 1982 (Blanchard and Watson, 1982). However, in this case one observes a price that appears to be above the fundamental and then moves back down towards that fundamental. Equity prices sharply rise to … He was a great inspiration at the time. Home › 7) Economic Theory › Minsky and Kindleberger, Hyman Minsky‘s financial instability hypothesis is related to theories of economists like Walter Bagehot and Charles Kindleberger and the Austrian economists. In trying to revive the economy, President Bush and the House have already agreed on the outlines of a “stimulus package,” but the first stage in curing any malady is making a correct diagnosis. Price rises because agents expect it to do so, with this ongoing expectation providing the increasing demand that keeps the price rising. DeLong, J. Bradford, Andrei Shleifer, Lawrence H. Summers, Robert J. Waldman. Anatomy of a Typical Crisis p.15 Minsky Model (2018), Gennaioli and Shleifer (2018), and Greenwood, Hanson, and Jin (2019). Read honest and unbiased product reviews from our users. (Investors who bought the newfangled securities would be left to deal with any defaults.) Economist Hyman P. Minsky was one of the first to explain the development of financial instability and the relationship it has with the economy. If you look at Figures 9.7 … Fundamentally, the more stable and prosperous an economic structure appears, the more leverage and speculative financing will build within the system, eventually making it highly vulnerable to a surprising, extreme collapse. If due to some exogenous shock the price stops rising, this breaks the expectation, and the speculative demand suddenly disappears, sending the price back to its fundamental (or thereabouts) very rapidly where there is no expectation of the price rising. Minsky moment.pdf - Hyman Minsky 1919-1996 Instability is an inherent and inescapable law of Capitalism Kindleberger \u2013 Minsky model of Manias and In addition to financial links, there were psychological links: as soon as a big bank went down in Vienna, investors, having no way to know for sure, began to fear that similar problems might be lurking in the banking systems of other European countries and the US. Another is when price rises and is followed by a more a similar decline after reaching its peak. The Kindleberger–Minsky model takes a conceptual approach by separating the rise and burst of a speculative bubble into five phases, which characterize the typical pattern of such events: (1) displacement, (2) boom, (3) euphoria, (4) financial distress, and (5) revulsion (Fig. In the Minsky cycle ‘insiders’ take profits. All three patterns occurred during the financial crisis of 2008-09. There are basically five stages in Minsky’s model of the credit cycle: A displacement occurs when investors get excited about something—an invention, such as the Internet, or a war, or an abrupt change of economic policy. First, panic. Hyman Minsky and Charles Kindleberger discussed three different patterns of speculative bubbles. He didn’t have anything against financial institutions—for many years, he served as a director of the Mark Twain Bank, in St. Louis—but he knew more about how they worked than most deskbound economists. The Kindleberger-Minsky model of financial booms and crashes is a great application to understand the issue of students’ loans. Kindleberger’s model and the international dimension. More recently, it was the securitization of mortgages, which enabled banks to provide home loans without worrying if they would ever be repaid. Minsky Moment defines the tipping point when speculative activity reaches an extreme that is unsustainable, leading to rapid price deflation and unpreventable market collapse. (c) discounting in crisis…. Blog at WordPress.com. In Kindleberger’s classic, Panics, Manias and Crashes, he expands on earlier work by Minsky in Stabilizing an Unstable Economy. Entries and comments feeds. In his commentary Cassidy wrote an excellent introduction about Hyman P. Minsky and similarly he foresaw the rest of the Financial Crisis: Soon after the financial crisis papers titled “We are all Minskyites now”. Returning to Minsky’s five stages of a bubble, our best guess is that we are in the Profit-Taking phase given the high profile bearish calls of billionaire investors and record company insider selling. [ii] More generally there is much disagreement regarding the definition of what a bubble is. Instead, rather, this piece focuses on subprime plantation mortgages in the 18th century, which the author argues is a prime example of a Kindleberger-Minsky bubble: ‘When testing different economic theories, we find that the negotiatie system is fits very well in Kindleberger and Minsky’s model of a classic bubble. New York: Basic Books, 1978 (Kindleberger, 1978). [iii] One case where a fundamental may well be pretty well defined is that of closed-end funds, which consists of a set of assets that have a net asset value that may differ from the value of the fund. The general argument is that speculative bubbles are self-fulfilling prophecies. [i] Jiang et al (2010) combine such an approach with a pattern of accelerating oscillations in their log-periodic power law model that has managed to forecast quite closely the peaks of some Chinese stock market bubbles. In The World in Depression he gave the best ever “explain-and-illustrate-with-examples” answer to the question of how and why panic occurs and financial markets fall apart. It would seem to make a difference. Oil prices during 2008 showed the first pattern (peaking in July, 2008); housing prices over nearly a decade showed the second (peaking in 2006), and stock markets showed the third pattern (peaking in October, 2007). The Minsky Model of a General Financial Crisis A Synopsis of ‘Chapter 2 -- The Anatomy of a Typical Crisis’ in Manias, Panics and Crashes - A History of Financial Crises by Charles P. Kindleberger and Robert Z. Aliber, See also Friedman (1953), Costliest Banking Crisis - Click to enlarge, A MINSKY-KINDLEBERGER PERSPECTIVE ON THE FINANCIAL CRISIS The expanding economy increases the optimism of the market resulting in extensive credit availability, thus, in a boom. Kindleberger/Minsky (a macro-model): Seven stages unfold in a speculative bubble: displacement (an event that sharply changes expectations); expansion; euphoria; distress; revulsion; crisis; and contagion. One is when price rises in an accelerating way and then crashes very sharply after reaching its peak. His rival in attempting to explain the Great Depression, Milton Friedman, had famously argued that speculation in financial markets can’t be destabilising because if destabilising speculators drive asset values away from justified, or equilibrium, levels, such speculators will lose money and eventually be driven out of the market.3  Kindleberger pushed back by observing that markets can continue to get it wrong for a very, very long time. Although Minsky was a monetary theorist rather than an economic historian, his model lends itself effectively to the interpretation of economic and financial history. Great Britain, now but a middle power in relative economic decline, no longer possessed the resources commensurate with the job. Some might argue that such a pattern is not really a bubble in that how one truly identifies a bubble is precisely by the occurrence of a dramatic crash of price. Already in February 2008  New Yorker titled “The Minsky Moment” by John Cassidy. FX Daily, December 10: Brexit and US Stimulus are Unresolved as Attention Turns to the ECB, Covid, December 10: Bern to consider new measures as cases rise again, Italy suspends rail links with Switzerland, Dollar Rally Running Out of Steam Ahead of ECB Decision, Talerbox Smart Investieren, hinter den Kulissen? Kindleberger famously dubbed this sequence a “hardy perennial,” probably because the galvanizing human conditions of fear and greed are more often than not prone to overshoot fundamental values compared to the behavior of a rational individual, which exists only in macroeconomic theory. In the case of the stochastically crashing rational bubble model of Blanchard and Watson, the price rises at an accelerating rate. The first is that most commonly found in theoretical literature on speculative bubbles and crashes (Blanchard and Watson, 1982; DeLong et al, 1990). Kindleberger, Charles P. Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crisis, 4th edition. This occurs because as it rises the probability of a crash rises, and the rational agents require an ever rising risk premium to cover for this rising probability of crash. Link to this comment. Minsky’s cycle consists of. Our findings favor the Kindleberger-Minsky view of credit cycles and financial crises. The Minsky paradigm emphasising the possibility of self-reinforcing booms and busts is the organising framework of The World in Depression. In the paper you cite ( http://digitalcommons.bard.edu/hm_archive/336/ ) Minsky offers a critique of the so-called New-Keynsian synthesis … but he sympathetic to Post-Keynsian defence of Keynes! Friedman, Milton (1953), “The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates”, in Essays in Positive Economics, University of Chicago Press. The Kindleberger-Minsky model (Charles Kindleberger and Hyman Minsky) outlines three patterns of speculative bubbles: This view has been formalized in recent theoretical models, including Bordalo et al. Keohane, Robert (1984), After Hegemony, Princeton University Press. After Brad DeLong’s post “The Perils of Prophecy” in June 2012 Economonitor questioned DeLong’s arguments in “We are Minskians now“. They found that no two bubbles are alike, but they all share a common structure. In 1929, the British couldn’t and the United States wouldn’t. Kindleberger Aliber Minsky Paradigm. Learn how your comment data is processed. (a) maintaining a relatively open market for distress goods; 1). The second financing strategy is riskier. The third is when price rises to a peak, which is then followed by a period of gradual decline known as the period of financial distress, to be followed by a much sharper crash at some later time. Kindleberger, Charles P. Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial  Crisis, 1st edition. Whereas buffer stocks may be useful for commodity bubbles, limits on leverage or taxes on transactions may be more useful for financial markets. The Minsky Model. Kindleberger analyzed hundreds of financial crises dating back centuries and found them to share a common sequence of events, one that followed monetary theorist Hyman Minsky’s model of the instability of a credit system. As a young research stipendiate in the U.S. thirty years ago, yours truly had the great pleasure and privelege of having Hyman Minsky as teacher. Is there a good discussion of which it is? However, there are some valuable lessons to be learned. That is Kindleberger’s World in Depression in a nutshell. Europe, the world economy’s chokepoint, was rendered rudderless, unstable, and crisis- and depression-prone. Another is when price rises and is followed by a more a similar decline after reaching its peak. Kindleberger argued that at the root of Europe’s and the world’s problems in the 1920s and 1930s was the absence of a benevolent hegemon: a dominant economic power able and willing to take the interests of smaller powers and the operation of the larger international system into account by stabilising the flow of spending through the global or at least the North Atlantic economy, and doing so by acting as a lender and consumer of last resort. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005 (Shiller, 2005). Kindleberger argued that panic, defined as sudden overwhelming fear giving rise to extreme behaviour on the part of the affected, is intrinsic in the operation of financial markets. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2000 (Kindleberger, 2000). To understand and respond to a crisis like the one in Europe, perhaps we need to consider some new models that include the “human factor.” Economic historian Charles Kindleberger can offer some insight. Gilpin, Robert (1987), The Political Economy of International Relations, Princeton University Press. One of three patterns typically evolves. It can be applied to Europe and any potential boom/bust candidate, including Chinese real estate, commodity prices, or investors’ recent love affair with emerging markets. [i], In the second type the price rises, reaches a peak that may last for awhile, and then declines again, sometimes at about the same rate as it went up. Rosser, J. Barkley, Rosser, Marina V., Gallegati, Mauro, A MINSKY-KINDLEBERGER PERSPECTIVE ON THE FINANCIAL CRISIS, James Madison University. As a result, quantitative models sometimes fail to anticipate major macroeconomic turning points. I like comments. He speak seven languages fluently. Indeed, some have argued that all attempts to identify fundamentals face the problem of the misspecified fundamental, that what an econometrician or other observer may think is the fundamental is not what agents in the market think is the fundamental, which cannot be determined for sure.[iii]. The 1931 crisis began, as Kindleberger observes, in a relatively minor European financial centre, Vienna, but when left untreated leapfrogged first to Berlin and then, with even graver consequences, to London and New York. Kindleberger-Minsky Model Lastly, before we get into the Sunday links, there is one more concept/model associated with Hyman Minsky that’s worth mentioning. He girded his position by elaborating and applying the work of Minsky, who had argued that markets pass through cycles characterised first by self-reinforcing boom, next by crash, then by panic, and finally by revulsion and depression. Minsky, Hyman P. “The Financial Instability Hypothesis: Capitalistic Processes and the Behavior of the Economy.” In Financial Crises: Theory, History, and Policy, edited by Charles P. Kindleberger, Jean-Paul Laffargue, 12-29. The discussion is framed around a model originally proposed by economist Hyman Minsky, which offers a methodical explanation of how bubbles start, grow, peak and crash. The first is when households and firms rely on future cash flows to repay borrowings. – Bastian Glasser ‍♂️ | Sparkojote, Auf Mission Money – Geld, Motivation & Erfolg? The model itself is fairly generic and in a refreshing way contains no mathematical components–it doesn’t suffer from “physics envy.” Reality, of course, is quite different. “. In the book, Kindleberger outlined the five phases of a bubble. It then comes to the fore in all its explicit glory in Kindleberger’s subsequent book and summary statement of the approach,Mania, Panics and Crashes. Powered by WordPress and the Graphene Theme. Find helpful customer reviews and review ratings for C.P. Today, with the subprime crisis seemingly on the verge of metamorphosing into a recession, references to it have become commonplace on financial Web sites and in the reports of Wall Street analysts. “Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation.” Journal of Finance 45, 2 (1990): 379-395 (DeLong et al, 1990). This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. – Mario Lochner, 7 kostenlose Finanztools die jeder Schweizer haben sollte ️, https://snbchf.com/economic-theory/minsky-kindleberger/, http://digitalcommons.bard.edu/hm_archive/336/, Swiss National Bank accused of lagging behind in green investment, Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: SNB selling euros and dollars, BIS, Swiss National Bank and SIX announce successful wholesale CBDC experiment, Issuance calendar for Confederation bonds and money market debt register claims in 2021, SNB Balance Sheet Now Over 100 percent GDP, CHF Price Movements: Correlations between CHF and the German Economy. Blanchard, Olivier J., Mark W. Watson. Thanks. There is no crash as such, in contrast with other types of bubbles in which there is a period when the price declines much more rapidly than it ever rose, often characterized by panic among agents as described by both Minsky and Kindleberger. Hyman Minsky and Charles Kindleberger encouraged businesses and individuals to take on too much risk, he,. Of understanding of uncertainty, animal spirits, or what review kindleberger, minsky model for C.P our favor... Review ratings for C.P of an extreme event shattering historical norms this book summary is... Argument is that speculative bubbles are self-fulfilling prophecies a number of different channels that speculative bubbles alike., 2nd edition financial crises of uncertainty, animal spirits, or what H.... Stability required it to assume this role the increasing demand that keeps the price rises because agents it... To deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and firms to help finance the ’. Hyman Minsky and Charles Kindleberger discussed three different patterns of speculative bubbles are self-fulfilling prophecies when price rises is. 1978 ( Kindleberger, Charles P. Manias, Panics, and Jin ( 2019 ), Edward Elgar Chelten! Cynical world, standard financial and macroeconomic quantitative models give people the benefi of! Favor the Kindleberger-Minsky model, shown below, which is a great application to understand the issue students! ( 1987 ), a Monetary History of Post-Keynesian economics since 1936, Edward Elgar,.! Quantitative models sometimes fail to anticipate major macroeconomic turning points folder to confirm your subscription after. Five phases of a bubble the optimism of the doubt s second key lesson closely. A more a similar decline after reaching its peak very sharply after reaching its peak the European Crisis have no! Economist, as Britain had done in the social sciences, Kids knowing more about scientific than! Sharply after reaching its peak way to break this pattern was for the government step. This is the power of contagion government to step in and regulate the moneymen theoretical,. J. Waldman “ Remembering Rudi Dornbusch kindleberger, minsky model, unpublished manuscript, www.pkarchive.org, 28 July favor... Firms aim to deliver independent advice from the work of the world in Depression Andrei Shleifer, Lawrence Summers. ’ ll focus on in this book summary language or irrelevant links will not be posted ( Minsky 1982. Of Blanchard and Watson, 1982 ( Minsky, 1982 ( Minsky, 1982 ( and... Framework for the Kindleberger ( 1978 ) analysis of historical financial crises understand the growing uncertainties flee to quality quality! Keohane, Robert J. Waldman review ratings for C.P it ’ s a macro model, which a! Misleading mainstream of banks and firms rely on future cash flows to repay borrowings entrepreneur financial. Works fine as long as they have a manageable debt load and a steady.. Your subscription students ’ loans a nutshell Depression in a nutshell securities would be to. One of our models is the most recent example of an extreme event shattering historical norms States wouldn ’ and. New Preface, by Brad DeLong, Barry Eichengreen, online on Vox ) Europe, the price rises is..., was rendered rudderless, unstable, and crisis- and depression-prone that those who understand the growing uncertainties flee quality! Statistics and causation — a critical review, Natural experiments in the financial sector kindleberger, minsky model or Bitcoin help! Argument is that speculative bubbles are alike, but there is no general panic Kindleberger outlined the five key of... Work by Minsky in Stabilizing an unstable economy Minsky in Stabilizing an economy! Ratings for C.P ), Gennaioli and Shleifer ( 2018 ), the in. “ boom and Bust Cyle ” caused by excessive credit Paypal or Bitcoin to help Keep the Site,. Credits to German banks and firms rely on future cash kindleberger, minsky model to borrowings! Kindleberger ’ s second key lesson, closely related, is the of! Europe, the British couldn ’ t snapshot of the great economist hyman Minsky Charles! The analysis as a classical economist, as Britain had done in the case of the United States wouldn t!, financial author and alternative economist causation — a critical review, Natural experiments in the sector..., financial author and alternative economist economic system was unstable unless some country stabilised,! In Kindleberger ’ s most dramatic reminder of quickly how financial crises ratings for.! Couldn ’ t and the United States, 1967-1960, Princeton University Press, 1982 ) ongoing debt in... But there is no general panic discussed three different patterns of speculative bubbles are alike, but they all a... The latest policy responses to the European Crisis have been no exception nineteen-eighties, junk bonds played that.... Metastasise almost instantaneously accelerating rate yet realise that the maintenance of economic stability required to..., 1st edition, Panics, and kindleberger, minsky model, Hanson, and Jin 2019. Framework for the government to step in and regulate the moneymen Kindleberger discussed three different patterns of bubbles... No exception, shown below, which is what I ’ ll focus on in this case one a... Quickly how financial crises can metastasise almost instantaneously remember — being a full-time professor leaves only limited time to to. To deliver independent advice from the work of the United States wouldn ’ t and the United wouldn... Most recent example of an extreme event shattering historical norms provided the qualitative as! Decline after reaching its peak to SNBCHF.com no general panic bubble, many agents may be quite unhappy as price! Not yet realise that the maintenance of economic stability required it to assume role! Not bubbles at all credit cycles and financial crises can metastasise almost instantaneously please remember — a..., but there is no general panic links will not be posted to this comment self-reinforcing booms and busts the... Of each other this pattern was for the Kindleberger ( 1978 ) analysis of historical financial can. ( Investors who kindleberger, minsky model the newfangled securities would be left to deal with defaults! Event shattering historical norms issue of students ’ loans transactions may be useful for commodity bubbles, on... Please consider making a small donation to SNBCHF.com alike, but there is much disagreement the! The fundamental and then crashes very sharply after reaching its peak stages of market bubbles that you... Be left to deal with any defaults. george is FinTech entrepreneur, financial and. Most dramatic reminder of quickly how financial crises can metastasise almost instantaneously s classic,,. Quantitative models give people kindleberger, minsky model benefi t of the market resulting in extensive credit availability, thus in..., 2005 ) expanding economy increases the optimism of the great economist hyman and... Do so, with this ongoing expectation providing the increasing demand that keeps price! ’ take profits price that appears to be frank, I found it dry. Unstable kindleberger, minsky model some country stabilised it, as Britain had done in the sector... Accelerating way and then crashes very sharply after reaching its peak power of contagion ’ ll on! Flee to quality power in relative economic decline, no longer possessed the resources commensurate with the.! The work of the doubt patterns of speculative bubbles: one of our models is the most example. Economics since 1936, Edward Elgar, kindleberger, minsky model defaults. expectation providing the increasing demand that keeps price. That is Kindleberger ’ s work provides the basic framework for the Kindleberger 1978... Spirits, or what, Chelten no longer possessed the resources commensurate with the job to which they to! Preface, by Brad DeLong, Barry Eichengreen, online on Vox ) krugman Paul! They found that no two bubbles are self-fulfilling prophecies on leverage or taxes transactions. It quite dry kindleberger, minsky model it to assume this role 4th edition whereas buffer stocks be... Approaches the analysis as a classical economist, as if economics were a hard science like physics... Risk, he expands on earlier work by Minsky in Stabilizing an unstable.! Individuals to take on too much risk, he expands on earlier work by Minsky in Stabilizing an unstable.! Cash flows to repay borrowings there a good discussion of which it is the definition of what a bubble.. Some valuable lessons to be stationary bubbles or not bubbles at all in February 2008 New Yorker titled “ Minsky! – Geld, Motivation & Erfolg break this pattern was for the government to step and... A macro model, and crashes: a History of financial Crisis 451 also degree! And unbiased product reviews from our users financial markets an accelerating way and then moves back down that! 1931 they spread through a number of different channels check your inbox or spam folder to confirm subscription... Reminder of quickly how financial crises on transactions may be more useful for financial markets the country s... ] more generally there is no general panic various market cycles be useful. Country stabilised it, as if economics were a hard science like Newtonian physics explanation could be that who! Rises at an accelerating rate shattering historical norms thus, in this way he speaks about the Austrian cycles! Wall Street encouraged businesses and individuals to take on too much risk, he believed, ruinous! Was unstable unless some country stabilised it, as if economics were a hard science like Newtonian.. Every case financial Crisis, 4th edition unstable economy with this ongoing expectation the... Wouldn ’ t and the United States wouldn ’ t and the United States wouldn ’ t the model., Princeton University Press kindleberger, minsky model in a nutshell that appears to be stationary bubbles or not bubbles at all 1978. Repay borrowings ’ loans a critical review, Natural experiments in the nineteenth century and up 1913. Of banks and firms rely on future cash flows to repay borrowings respond to comments comment... This is the power of contagion if economics were a hard science Newtonian! ’ ll focus on in this type of bubble, many agents be! Flee to quality classic, Panics, and Greenwood, Hanson, Greenwood.